Merrill Lynch: X360 Will Win the Next-Gen Battle

[Zeus]

Analysts Merril Lynch believe the Xbox 360 will win the battle of the next generation consoles. They predict the 360 will have 40% of the market share, but the PS3 won't be too far off the pace at all.


Most people assume that Microsoft's Xbox 360 and Nintendo's Wii will eat away at Sony's market share, but a number of analysts still believe that in the long run Sony will come out on top. Not Merrill Lynch. The combination of Microsoft's head start and Sony's initial PS3 production issues should be just enough to give the 360 the edge.

"The winner in the next-generation console battle is likely to be the Xbox 360, which is the leader in North America, the world's biggest market," said Yoshiyuki Kinoshita, research analyst for Merrill Lynch.

Through March 2011, in North America the firm expects Microsoft to be in the lead with 50 percent market share. Merrill Lynch predicts Sony and Nintendo to be almost even in North America with 27 percent and 23 percent, respectively.


News Source: <A href="http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=14461" target="_blank">Gamedaily</a>

[vEGA-rJ]

really really ROTFL :)

[{{909}}]

"which is the leader in america"

well since niether of its competitors have even launched there yet, thats hardly a great claim!

these analysts have no idea what theyre talking about, with virtually no presence in japan, to gain 40% of the market would be almost impossible.
If sony can make machines quickly and reliably, theyre dominence is almost secure, i wouldnt say their closest competitor is M$ either.

Its worth mentioning that the 360 has sold 85,000 this year in japan, the same amount that the PS3 sold on the day of release....

[Hevyduty]

North American leader? The 360 can't even outsell the PS2 in any given month. Imagine how much worse it'll be now that Microsoft no longer has the next-gen market to itself.

I'm a 360 fan (i.e., I own one and I like it), but I definitely think that the 360 has underperformed in the marketplace. Selling 200K systems per month with no next-gen competition is definitely mediocre at best. And it only gets harder from here on out.

[burgertime]

They are comparing NEXT GENERATION marketshares (PS2 don't count). At current price point I don't see the PS3 hitting critical mass after all hardcore gamers have their fill. So potentially if Xbox 360 have a price drop this can easily become reality.

[Scorpion3]

They are comparing NEXT GENERATION marketshares (PS2 don't count). At current price point I don't see the PS3 hitting critical mass after all hardcore gamers have their fill. So potentially if Xbox 360 have a price drop this can easily become reality.

Look! One non-fanboy. lol.

I swear to God, there can't be one thread about Xbox 360 doing anything that threatens Sony without them just coming out of the woodwork, except for {{909}}. He's been out of the closet for a long time now when it comes to his favorism, and I respect him for being truthful and because of his post count. :rolleyes: I honestly don't care who wins, I think Nintendo should win though! Why? Because of 3 reasons, 1. because they're not competing like MS and Sony. 2. Because it's technically not even a next gen console, and 3. to make up for their horrible loss in the last "Race".

Either way, I'll be using my 360 for Next Gen gaming and my Wii for other shtuff. PS3 is a bucket full of pretty lies, so I think I'll just sway away from it til it gets down to 50 bucks like the PSX did.

North American leader? The 360 can't even outsell the PS2 in any given month. Imagine how much worse it'll be now that Microsoft no longer has the next-gen market to itself.

I'm a 360 fan (i.e., I own one and I like it), but I definitely think that the 360 has underperformed in the marketplace. Selling 200K systems per month with no next-gen competition is definitely mediocre at best. And it only gets harder from here on out.

Suuure you are, that's why you haven't posted in any Xbox sections at all since June. :rolleyes: Not calling you a liar, just putting it out there. lol. But you're right, it has been underperformed. But you're wrong, harder here on out wise that is. The reason people were holding out wasn't because they just didn't want it, they wanted to see how the launches of the PS3 and Wii do. Both will be shown very soon, not to mention the average gamer doesn't watch G4, or go to any gaming sites to see the news so they may have no idea that the PS3 is being sold at such an outrageous price. And as for the Wii, it has a great price but the Wiimote may not appeal to those gamers who don't want to have to get used to the motion sensor dealy.

[The Bat]

North American leader? The 360 can't even outsell the PS2 in any given month. Imagine how much worse it'll be now that Microsoft no longer has the next-gen market to itself.

I'm a 360 fan (i.e., I own one and I like it), but I definitely think that the 360 has underperformed in the marketplace. Selling 200K systems per month with no next-gen competition is definitely mediocre at best. And it only gets harder from here on out.

Kind of hard to say who will win out at this point. As I've said before, it all comes down to which console producer makes the saaviest decisions and has the best luck with upcoming hits.

At the moment though, and likely for the next few years at least, Microsoft will be in much better financial shape than Sony. Besides being better able to drop the price of the 360 and games before Sony can match with a price drop of their own, there's also the fact that developers develop games strictly for profit, and Microsoft may try to buy some exclusives, just like Sony did with Final Fantasy and GTA for the PS2. The PS3 also has a literal and a virtual absence for two Christmas seasons running, in Europe and in North America respectively. So Sony has their work cut out for them in not losing too much of the market.

Even with the $129 PS2 selling so well (despite the fact that nobody should have been interested in buying it if they didn't have it by June of 2001 :rolleyes:), Sony is in the red financially. And whether or not the fence sitters make the $499 and the $599 PS3 as popular remains to be seen yet. But as I keep saying, it's anybodys game at this point.

[Scorpion3]

despite the fact that nobody should have been interested in buying it if they didn't have it by June of 2001 :rolleyes:

I wonder if I'll be the only one who gets that. lol.

[11111]

That is really ballsy of Merrill Lynch to say something like this I'm actually quite surprised coming from them.

[Ichijoe]

Look it's like this right here, the "Winner" (whoever the Hell it'll be), will be the One that can offer the best Content throughout, and historically that has been S0NY™.

Although S0NY's™ PSP™ Line-up is shaking my faith.
I don't know why, but I really believed Two Years ago (when the PSP™ first came out), that it would pown the DS.
Well history has shown that to be false! :mad:

Looking back on the XBOX™ I ~Personaly~ can only think of about Six Titles that were actually any good, and sadly all those were from Tecmo:

DOA Xtream Beach Volleyball
DOA3
Project Zero (Fatal Frame US)
Ninja Gaiden
DOA Ultimate
Project Zero 2 (Fatel Frame 2 US)

Anyone see the Picture here?!?! Japenese Games good, lame EASports ('02, '03, '04, Ad-noisome), and Third-rate FPS Games bad!

The only other good Game that I could think of would be Project Gotham 2.

Now I do not have any opinions about G(h)aylo 1 or 2 I thought them both to be Third-rate (AT BEST!!), perhaps I'm just to old and tired from the whole FPS thing. (Trust me it gets old! Esp., if you can remember playing the Original Doom on a 486DX!), So feel free to flame away!

But the fact is...

Without the whole Mod Community and by that I mean the XBOX Media Player. (At least for me!), the whole thing would have been a flop!

Why?!

'couse, and for the reason why the XBOX 360™ will fall on it's Arse too?
Japanese Game Makers (and Buyers) are not interested in this Device at all.
I mean Morowind was ok and Sudeki was just LAME, and Fable more of the same!
When all I really wanted was to play Good solid J-RPG's like Final Fantasy X2 or such Titles like Ghost in the Shell: Stand Alone Complex.

I just don't see this happing on the 360™ anymore then the original XBOX™, and that's a shame!
The XBOX™ has always done well at home and, I expect it will outsell the PS3 by a Mile this Christmas Season.

But, once S0NY™ manage to drum up support for the PS3 (Praying like Hell that it will NOT be a repeat of the PSP™!), I'd think that will just about be it for Microsoft.
But, then they might then decide to drop the Price a bit, then, who knows...

[{{909}}]

i agree with the poster above, well apart from his top xbox games, cmon extreme vollyball was teh suck!

japanese games are the ones that i play too, titles like the recient Okami, god hand, shadow of collosus, katamari and so on, they dont appeal to everyone, but overall i think they appeal to more people that we realise, having a following in japan is a massive boost to any console and thats why i dont believe MS will ever be number 1.
Japan itself isnt the biggest market, but, a popular console in japan gets support of japanese game houses, which must produce more games than europe and america combined. Some of those may never reach western shores, but alot do and are some of the most popular titles. theres only GTA that the west has produced thats really made an impact on world wide charts.

I agree too that if the xbox had never been hacked, it would have sold a fraction of what it did, almost everyone i know has an xbox, far more than have playstations or gamecubes but virtually nobody plays games on them. Its used as a media station (for xxx moves to a lot of them!) and every friday we all gather to watch the latest family guy/american dad/southpark, once thats over with, its turned off and we play on the cube/ds or ps2 untill we fall unconcious form alchohol consumption!

[Ichijoe]

i agree with the poster above, well apart from his top xbox games, cmon extreme vollyball was teh suck!


Yes but, I think we're forgetting our history here a bit.
As it stands DOAX was not the best showing, in my list, but with a little jiggery-pokery.
Removing the crapy Western Pop for more j-Pop/Rock and rendering the Girls stock Swimsuits to be 100% transparent, ;)
went a ling way to giving this Game the final edge, and DOAX 2 might be the First Game I get for the XBOX360™ (if I ever decide to get it),.

But the way things are standing for Microsoft at the moment, I'm simply not interested in the 360™.
No HDMI Connection for 1080p (not that, that will effect me the HDTV I have on order will likey be only 720p (1366x768), and no built-in Next-Gen DVD (read HDDVD), player, add another €200.00(EUR)+ to the total cost, and just where are you supposed to place this when you have a limited to live in?

It's no wonder that the japenese aren't much interested in it.

My hope is that Microsoft will wake up and smell the Maple-Nut-Crunch™, and finally decide to do the right thing and just sell an updated 360™ Unit with the HDDVD and HDMI units built-in.
That might get me interested, given that the cost of the System doesn't overly exceed that of the Pro version.
Heres an idea they could call this the Ultimate Edition! lol

[Rockman_Joey]

North American leader? The 360 can't even outsell the PS2 in any given month. Imagine how much worse it'll be now that Microsoft no longer has the next-gen market to itself.

I'm a 360 fan (i.e., I own one and I like it), but I definitely think that the 360 has underperformed in the marketplace. Selling 200K systems per month with no next-gen competition is definitely mediocre at best. And it only gets harder from here on out.

Yeah I remember reading that somewhere, LOL PS2 is really old in terms of technology but has great library of games!!

[Scorpion3]

Yes but, I think we're forgetting our history here a bit.
As it stands DOAX was not the best showing, in my list, but with a little jiggery-pokery.
Removing the crapy Western Pop for more j-Pop/Rock and rendering the Girls stock Swimsuits to be 100% transparent, ;)
went a ling way to giving this Game the final edge, and DOAX 2 might be the First Game I get for the XBOX360™ (if I ever decide to get it),.

But the way things are standing for Microsoft at the moment, I'm simply not interested in the 360™.
No HDMI Connection for 1080p (not that, that will effect me the HDTV I have on order will likey be only 720p (1366x768), and no built-in Next-Gen DVD (read HDDVD), player, add another €200.00(EUR)+ to the total cost, and just where are you supposed to place this when you have a limited to live in?

It's no wonder that the japenese aren't much interested in it.

My hope is that Microsoft will wake up and smell the Maple-Nut-Crunch™, and finally decide to do the right thing and just sell an updated 360™ Unit with the HDDVD and HDMI units built-in.
That might get me interested, given that the cost of the System doesn't overly exceed that of the Pro version.
Heres an idea they could call this the Ultimate Edition! lol

That would be great and all, except it wasn't necissarily Tecmo who released those games, it was Team Ninja who is a first party developer for Microsoft. And as for the mod community, only about 1/3 of the Xboxes were shipped to Mod, and about 2/3 of all Xboxes (I'm pretty sure that's the exact estimate) at this time are modded in any way, shape, or form. People bought the Xbox for the games, not just the Hardware. And if you're going to be making a deal out of the best games for Xbox being second party, maybe you should look at the good games on the PS2, they're all 2'nd party. As for the Next Gen movies...as one smart man on these forums once said "When did gaming turn into movies?". What the hell does movie playback mean with games? Absolutely nothing. It seems the BR player on the PS3 is the only thing going for it so far. And unlike Sony, Microsoft at least gave the option to pay for the Next Gen movies, instead of forcing a new media down your throat and telling you there's no damn thing you can do about it, or making a new controller(s) and saying the same thing. It seems that the 360 is really the only console that gives you a geniune choice anymore.