Pachter: PS3 second by 2015, 360 to end up last

[Zeus]

Michael Pachter has predicted that the Xbox 360 will find itself in third place at the end of the current console war in 2015. He views the PS3 as coming in second place, and is confident a HD compatible Wii is on the horizon for the near future.

<blockquote>Then there's Sony and its PS3. Pointing to Sony's win in the Blu-ray vs HD DVD war, Pachter says the PS3 will capture "significant market share" through this alone, and says the company will take second place. Regardless, Pachter sees the PS3 and Xbox 360 sharing very similar market share at the conclusion of this generation.

Moving on to Microsoft, Pachter believes the company will end this generation in third, largely due to the console's inability to sell in Japan. Pachter downplays the "losing" angle, however, stating that he believes Microsoft will sell twice as many Xbox 360s as the company did the original Xbox, which, granted it actually happens, would be a nice feather in Microsoft's cap.</blockquote>

News Source: <A href="http://www.joystiq.com/2009/06/29/pachter-wiihd-still-coming-xbox-in-third-by-2015/" target="_blank">Joystiq</a>

[msanchez]

Hasn't he stated time and again that the ps3 will finish last? I'm really asking mind you because that's what I seem to remember. Anyways, if that's the case whoopeedeedoo at him for changing his predictions around whenever he feels it's appropriate. If only betting on sports would be like that "on second thought, I'll take the Pirates".

[spook727]

and which place will XBox 720 be?

Who cares where the previous gen consoles end up when the next gen wars will be up and running?

[msanchez]

and which place will XBox 720 be?

Who cares where the previous gen consoles end up when the next gen wars will be up and running?

The console manufacturers and the game publishers probably care... indirectly so should we... maybe just a little though. I've got tons of other crap to worry about, and this isn't very high on the list.

[oetvarken]

OMG what a fucking smart prediction! Good thing I will be playing X720 by than :cool:

Man Parcher is worthless.

[danight]

PS3 second by 2015

wow.... :rolleyes: i predict in 2120 ps3 will be in first. who am i kidding...the magic 8ball even said not likely.

[n|n10do]

i also believe, that there will be a wiiHD... something like the dsi.
i also think, thats one of the reasons why nintendo didnt show anything about the new zelda at e3. because its already made for the "advanced wii"

[ronaldospet]

And he predicts this why? i see no hard reasoning.

[kcvfr400]

And he predicts this why? i see no hard reasoning.

I can see a hard reason. The ps3 has sold quicker in its lifespan than the 360 has and likely the 360 will have a sequel alot earlier going on previous generation. Also if the ps3 price came down alot in would be in the same mass adoption price bracket that the 360 has been in for years. So potential to overtake is there.

Though it doesn't matter so much who is 2nd or 3rd as both will have alot higher sales than last generations 2nd and 3rd places which is promising.

But the negatives are Sony will make alot less profit overall on the ps3 over its lifespan and Microsoft has yet to make money on the xbox business as a whole so they both will be losers and could effect the choice of next gen machines they make and price point negatively.

[Taft]

I think just because 360 will end in third doesn't mean it have sold bad or done a bad performance.

[crono]

Ah well,you can always dream. ps3 as second,yea............

I have a wii,xbox360 and ps3, what do i care witch one ends second.
As long as i can play my games.

[Cyclone57]

i also believe, that there will be a wiiHD... something like the dsi.
i also think, thats one of the reasons why nintendo didnt show anything about the new zelda at e3. because its already made for the "advanced wii"
I really do wish people wouldn't bring out devices then change them to be better as soon as you've bought one. This goes especially for the iPhone and the XBox 360.

[ThreeDog]

Anyone that thinks this gen will last that long is clearly deluded. PS3 software sales failing. 360 hardware sales failing and japan clearly lost. natal vs wands vs wiis all i see is desperation in a deflating hardcore market in favour of casuals.

It still stands first market will matter as will dx11/w7 and possibly unique gpu effects making porting harder, while the PC industry is still fighting over hardware physics this is where consoles will succeed in stealing more of the market. Those that cater for the hardcore and casual with perfect balance will succeed also. BC will 100% matter! as will development difficulty and early software delivery.

Im still putting my money on 2011 for early design and 2012 for release any later and consoles will be too far behind the PC market again. As it is we have a GPU that is now technically three hardware generations behind vs one with such bad thermals it can't even stay attached on its BGA.

Personally i can't wait to see whats next anything from ms/sony will be an instant buy (although maybe wait to see whats wrong with MS's hardware first) i'll probably never buy a nintendo home console again though after GC/Wii.

I really do wish people wouldn't bring out devices then change them to be better as soon as you've bought one. This goes especially for the iPhone and the XBox 360.
All they do with 360 is revise the boards and maybe the hdd size rarely you just need to be happy they don't sell PCs, as for the iphone what do you expect? apple loves money, sheeple will buy apple products, apple intentionally disables things in their hardware and software to charge for them later be it bluetooth, wireless in lower tier laptops or whatever

[n0rthstar]

I predict that BluRay will be a dead format by 2015... so BR wont even come into it by that time.

Anyway like most people have said, who cares... there will be new consoles out by that time.

[tech3475]

Please stop posting this bull****!! We keep hearing this stuff every other week from someone. The day they do switch places fair enough but until then...

[whackawookie]

i don't get whats with all of these predictions from this dude. We laugh at Miss Cleo commercials so why do we care of an analyst makes a prediction which he changes time and time again. eventually one prediction will be right

[harryisme]

By 2015 both the Wiitwo and the NXbox will be on the market for two years alteast, so it won't really matter to M$ or Nintendo for that matter.

Where does Patcher come up with his prediction, when he's sitting on the bog or something? one week he complains about the PS3 coming last and never catching up to the other two, then the next it's all about them coming second.

[kneehighspy]

By 2015 both the Wiitwo and the NXbox will be on the market for two years alteast, so it won't really matter to M$ or Nintendo for that matter.

Where does Patcher come up with his prediction, when he's sitting on the bog or something? one week he complains about the PS3 coming last and never catching up to the other two, then the next it's all about them coming second.


he probably sits in a small cubicle mumbling something about a stapler and ps3 in second place, 360 third place, gonna burn this place down....

[crypysmoker]

Im glad this guy isnt a real prophet or anything because his predictions always contradict each other.


First off.. If everything goes according to every religions plans, the worlds gonna end in 2012 anyway so what does it matter :) lol

But who cares.

Its all going to depend on.

Who wastes money on different console revisions

Who gets better games out with cheaper DLC

Who has a better online network

There are to many damn variables that can change in an instant and mess everything up.

A new extremely cheap optical disc format is discovered?

A solar flare hit the earth and knocks out all power/internet for years

OnLive comes out and destroys consoles


Sega and Atari both release new consoles with new optical disc tech and EMP proof system running on 2000 year lithium batteries and...


Woo..
Gota go take my meds

[SoCalSRH]

he probably sits in a small cubicle mumbling something about a stapler and ps3 in second place, 360 third place, gonna burn this place down....

nice office space reference.

[d33znutzEP]

patcher = Captain OBVIOUS

[kneehighspy]

nice office space reference.


one of the best small movies personally :) now if i could just remember the stapler guy's name, it's not like i haven't seen the movie a hundred times and burned a copy of the special edition bd.

[grapeape]

one of the best small movies personally :) now if i could just remember the stapler guy's name, it's not like i haven't seen the movie a hundred times and burned a copy of the special edition bd.

It was milton...
"The ratio of people to cake is too big"

All I can really say is that if im still stuck with my PS3 and 360 in 2015 its because I quit gaming. Folks dont bother to think how long 10 years is technology wise...put it this way...the top of the line video card in 1999 was a geforce from that upstart Nvidia, they were $300 wholesale, directX 7 was the latest API and Windows 2000 was new. The fastest desktop processor you would by was the Pentium 3 733mhz coppermine.

In the console world the Dreamcast was just released and we still had a year to go for the PS2. MS announced the Xbox which was still nearly 2 years from launch.

Graphics, storage and speed have all made huge jumps since then, it took over 10 years to go from 33mhz to 733mhz yet its only taken 10 to go to the equvalent of 9000mhz. Graphics have gone from standard sdram with a max of 256 mb onboard and a 166mhz clock to over a gig of gddr3 memory and clockspeeds of over 2000mhz.

The consoles may well be "suppported" six years from now but its going to be budget games for a $99 last gen console and seriously how many of us are going to be sticking to that?

[sigma8]

Hasn't he stated time and again that the ps3 will finish last? I'm really asking mind you because that's what I seem to remember. Anyways, if that's the case whoopeedeedoo at him for changing his predictions around whenever he feels it's appropriate. If only betting on sports would be like that "on second thought, I'll take the Pirates".

I feel like I remember him constantly predicting that "last month the PS3 will have outsold the Xbox360", and every time I saw him say that, he was wrong (by a small number of units, but wrong nonetheless).

[msanchez]

I feel like I remember him constantly predicting that "last month the PS3 will have outsold the Xbox360", and every time I saw him say that, he was wrong (by a small number of units, but wrong nonetheless).

Really who do I have to hump to get me one of those jobs?.... and please don't tell me he actually went to school for that; unless following a caravan of gypsies counts as schooling.